Friday, May 15, 2015

Preakness 2015 Picks

Time for the second jewel of the Triple Crown! Here are my thoughts on the Preakness.

Well, after the Kentucky Derby, I would've said American Pharoah was the likely winner until he drew the rail. He likes to stalk, and the speed is immediately in the two-hole. Martin Garcia on Dortmund is not going to be kind to Victor Espinoza on American Pharoah and graciously leave a hole for him on the rail. So Victor will have to take Pharoah to the outside, meaning there will be a lot of jockeying for early positions. It could work out, or it could NOT work out. At short odds, I'm not sure I like the idea of singling American Pharoah.

Bob Baffert has also admitted that Dortmund was a bit colicky after a workout prior to the Kentucky Derby, so since he still hung on for third and has a shorter trip this time, assuming he's 100%, he may just give Pharoah a better race. Same for Firing Line, who passed Dortmund and for a moment looked like he might run away with the Derby until Pharoah mowed him down. So, again, with a shorter distance to go, a miscalculation by Espinoza (such as moving American Pharoah too late or finding himself boxed in) could set up a nice, clean trip for Firing Line on the outside.

The bottom line is that I think any one of these three horses could win--though, of course, my desire to see a Triple Crown winner after all of this time means that naturally I'm rooting for American Pharoah.

Of the other entries, I don't like them to win (they appear outmatched), but it's worth noting that Bodhisattva has a win over the Pimlico track, and Divining Rod, who qualified for the Derby, skipped it to be pointed directly at this race, so he's fresh. If they look good going into the race, I'll probably sprinkle those two on the bottom in the exotics.

I'll probably post a Late Pick 4 ticket for races 10-13 tomorrow morning after the scratches, so check back. Good luck!

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