Friday, May 1, 2015

Derby Picks 2015

I'm afraid I don't have time tonight to 'cap the entire card, but I did consider the Pick 4 that commences in race 8 and ends with race 11 (the Derby). Here are my thoughts:

Race 8: Lady Lara, Sandiva, Coffee Clique; Tepin is a live longshot with Leparoux up and 15-1 odds.

Race 9: Bayern (although one hates to single a horse at such low odds unless his name is Zenyatta. He's also been inconsistent at times and is coming off a layoff from an injured quarter crack. Still, I've never known Bob Baffert to run a a horse that wasn't ready, and his works seem to say he is.) I may add Pants on Fire, Private Zone, and Gentleman's Bet. But if I have to pick a single, he'll be it.

Race 10: I have to root for Stephanie's Kitten! She's won over the course three times; let's make it four. But serious competition looms in Jack Milton, Optimizer, Finnegan's Wake, Seek Again, and Grand Arch. Coalport looks like a good longer shot. Argh. I suppose I could narrow it down a bit by picking Seek Again, who's been chasing the best in Wise Dan. (Note: in my Oaks-Woodford-Derby pick 3, I went with 1,5,7,8. So I probably, in the Pick 4, will choose 'Kitten, Seek Again, and others I've mentioned here that I didn't bet there since I did pick the Oaks winner. If 'Kitten wins, I'll be doubly thrilled.) UPDATE: STEPHANIE'S KITTEN IS A SCRATCH.

Race 11: As I posted earlier, I have a soft spot for the undefeated Dortmund. That big guy is a freak of nature! But American Pharaoh simply can't be ignored, even if he is stuck way out in the 18 hole. I'd put those two on top. Other contenders to include in the exotics: Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Frosted, and Upstart. (update: I'm having second thoughts about Carpe Diem due to his post position coupled with the fact that he tends to work himself up before races. Obviously you can't check how he looks before betting the Pick 4, but for trifectas, etc, I'd have a look at him prior to the race to see how much energy he's burning off.)

These are just preliminary thoughts. I'll post my actual Pick 4 ticket tomorrow, so check back!

Good luck to all!

Actual ticket:

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