Saturday, May 19, 2012

Preakness Picks

The thing to know about today's Preakness is that yesterday speed did not hold over the track at all; I just watched the second race and once again speed did not hold. This does not bode well for the front-running Bodemeister unless he sets such blistering fractions nobody is able to run him down. It is a shorter distance than the Kentucky Derby. However, the horses that have been winning have started to move a little early (at the final turn) and I would expect to see three horses start to challenge the lead horse at that point: I'll Have Another, Went the Day Well, and Creative Cause.

There's a longshot horse in the race that interests me: the three, Pretension. His speed figures are considerably lower than the four above, but he has the advantage of having won his last race over this racetrack. Of course, the fractions in that race were slow as molasses. I wouldn't look for him to win, but I'll use him on the bottom of exotics.

Daddy Nose Best has a shot as well; his Derby performance was a bit of a fluke since he had a rotten trip. But Creative Cause did better than he with pretty much the same sorts of excuses, which gives 'Cause the edge in my book. If Joel can get Creative Cause free of traffic in this much smaller field, he should give us a better showing than in the Derby, which puts him on the board.

So: 7,9,5,6 in any order and add 3 on the bottom if you're doing a superfecta or Super Hi 5.

I'll post a Pick 4 ticket later as soon as I get my hands on a Racing Form.

Update: here is my Pick 4 ticket:

Race #9    05/19/2012
$0.5 Pick-4
# 1,5,9
WT # 2,5,7,8
WT # 3,9,11
WT # 5,7,9

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