Thursday, November 3, 2011
Picks for Friday's Breeders Cup Races 2011
Race 5: Juvenile Sprint: Baffert is lethal in a sprint, so you have to pick Secret Circle despite the short odds. So I'll toss in a longshot upset: Holdin Bullets. Don't forget Vexor. Now, Chelle likes Blacky the Bull, and I want to like Blacky the Bull because I know Jeff Bonde is high on this horse and he put P Val aboard, a very good speed jockey. But can he really beat Baffert's entry?
Race 6: Juvenile Fillies Turf: well, Elusive Kate is the one to beat. But here's the thing. She's said to have a knee problem, and she's said to not be taking to the surface at Churchill Downs. At short odds, this makes her a bet against. Unfortunately, the rest seems a crapshoot on paper. Dayatthespa is a nice longshot, along with Pure Gossip, Somali Lemonade, and you better not leave out Aidan O'Brien's Up. In other words, you kind of have to go deep in this leg.
Race 7: Filly & Mare Sprint: Everybody likes Turbulent Descent because of that huge speed figure she posted last time. But don't overlook Great Hot; Chantal Sutherland's up and she would love to be the first female jockey to ever win a Breeders Cup event. My other two picks are Tanda and Golden Mystery.
Race 8: Juvenile Fillies: Well, Candrea is Baffert's entry and the word is she just had a lousy work over the track; clockers said she didn't look good. But maybe she was just being a fussy girl that day. Still, look also to the undefeated Weemissfrankie. I also like My Miss Aurelia. Put in Grace Hall as well.
Race 9: Filly & Mare Turf: This is a tough race. Stacelita, the French girl, looks great on paper, posting the best speed figures in the field. Nahrain is undefeated. Aruna and Announce both look good. And, since the turf may be somewhat soft tomorrow, don't leave out Misty for Me, the Irish girl who loves her turf squishy. I don't think Shared Account will win this one again this year (though looking ahead to Saturday, I do think Goldikova can take it for a fourth year in a row).
Race 10: The Ladies Classic: We're back to Bob Baffert again and his entry Plum Pretty. I also like It's Tricky, Royal Delta, and Ultra Blend.