Friday, May 6, 2011

Kentucky Derby 137 Picks

As I said the other day, I don't have a Derby horse this year. The race is a crapshoot. Given that, it's tough for me to get behind the favorite, Dialed In. I wouldn't keep that horse out of Pick 3's and 4's and such (especially given his primo post position in the 8 hole), but I wouldn't bet him to win. There are others who have just as good a shot at much better odds.

A horse I kind of like is the 3, Twice the Appeal. Jeff Bonde took the Mine That Bird approach via the Sunland Derby to get him to Kentucky, and he is even using Calvin Borel on him. Handicappers predictably scoff at the Sunland Derby as being a dull race, but you know... Christian Santiago Reyes, who was up that day, is a dull jockey. Yet the horse STILL won. Put a good jockey on him, and I'm thinking we may be surprised. So, I'm playing him.

Santiva has a shot if you draw a line through his bad showing on polytrack in the Bluegrass.

Soldat LOVES a wet track and it's supposed to rain tomorrow. Just sayin'.

Animal Kingdom is bred to go the distance.

Shackleford was beaten by just a head by the favorite, Dialed In, in the Florida Derby. And he's just had two bullet works over the track.

And Midnight Interlude is hard to ignore since Bob Baffert's filly just won today's Oaks. Still, his top rider, Martin Garcia, isn't aboard, and I don't have the same kind of confidence in Victor Espinoza.

Nehro is a possibility, but he's got a horrible post, as does ArchArchArch on the rail. These are usable in the gimmicks, but not to win.

And because I believe in Chick Power, I will toss a $2 win bet on Rosie, but I don't really believe Pants on Fire will win.

The rest of them I'm tossing out. They're either too slow or not improving or are turf horses.

As I said, a big crapshoot.


Matt said...

Hard for me to toss Mucho Macho Man out of the exotics. AND there is something about Shackleford that intrigues me too.

Joyce said...

Mucho Macho Man would be a sentimental bet for me, and I'm already doing two of them. LOL

I'm hating the odds on Twice the Appeal.