Thursday, November 4, 2010
Friday Picks for Breeders Cup 2010
The good news is that you can play $.50 Pick 4's and are thus able to go deeper in some legs. With that in mind, I'll pick four or five horses in each race and put my personal favorite in boldface. (In a magical kingdom, all the horses I like going off at the best odds will be the ones that actually win, but that never happens!) I'll also mention any horses I think are a "bet-against" (ie, a vulnerable favorite) and note any horses that I think are so good that you can just single them (e.g., Zenyatta in the Classic tomorrow).
Race 5 (BC Marathon): Eldaafer, Bright Horizon, Alcomo, Precision Break, A.U.Miner. I honestly don't have one I favor in this race, but I do think Awesome Gem and Giant Oak are vulnerable enough to not be worth betting at short odds. And in a race like this one, you'd better not leave out the European imports.
Race 6 (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf): Together is vulnerable in this one, so toss. I like Quiet Oasis, Kathmanblu, Winter Memories, Wyomia, and New Normal. You could even single Winter Memories and feel fairly good about it. The foodies among us will be cheering for Bobby Flay's horse More Than Real, but I don't know if the horse is good enough in this bunch. Crazy fillies.
Race 7 (BC Filly and Mare Sprint): I think Informed Decision is not the same gal as last year, but she is so good it's hard to overlook her. Still, I'm liking Secret Gypsy, Gabby's Golden Gal (Baffert-Garcia, watch out), Switch, and Rightly So. (There's also Evening Jewel and Dubai Majesty to throw in, too, if you have really deep pockets, which I do not.) I'm picking Switch as my favorite because even though she's been running in longer races, she's got some serious speed, Sadler has a good route-to-sprint win percentage, Sadler thought enough of her to put her up against Zenyatta, to whom she ran second. Plus he's had her out at Churchill Downs for awhile, working her over the surface.
Race 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies): well, I like AZ Warrior in this one. She woke up on dirt in the Frizette, and it's Baffert-Garcia hooking up again. Others: the undefeated Awesome Feather, Indian Gracey, and R Heat Lightning.
Race 9 (BC Filly & Mare Turf): Midday, Harmonious, and Plumania. Keertana might be a nice longshot, having raced 7 times over this same course and hitting the board 6 of those (winning three). I prefer Harmonious for silly reasons: she's a Wygod Cal-bred, and John Shirreffs is her trainer.
Race 10 (BC Ladies Classic): THE BIG RACE! If you're one of those persons who always bets lone front-running speed, then Malibu Prayer is the horse for you. My personal favorite is the Oaks winner, Blind Luck, although you can expect short odds on her. Havre de Grace is also a contender, and you can't really ever overlook a Shug-Phipps entry, Persistently. The other Todd Pletcher entry, Life at Ten, is worth considering as well.
Use these to cobble together tickets of your choosing.
If time permits tomorrow, I may also post actual tickets I do after any scratches are announced and if I have any changes to make to the above based on how the track is playing. (I did hear that it wasn't favoring speed earlier in the week.) Good luck!
UPDATE: Rightly So and Indian Gracey are scratches.