Thursday, November 4, 2010

Friday Picks for Breeders Cup 2010


The good news is that you can play $.50 Pick 4's and are thus able to go deeper in some legs. With that in mind, I'll pick four or five horses in each race and put my personal favorite in boldface. (In a magical kingdom, all the horses I like going off at the best odds will be the ones that actually win, but that never happens!) I'll also mention any horses I think are a "bet-against" (ie, a vulnerable favorite) and note any horses that I think are so good that you can just single them (e.g., Zenyatta in the Classic tomorrow).

Race 5 (BC Marathon): Eldaafer, Bright Horizon, Alcomo, Precision Break, A.U.Miner. I honestly don't have one I favor in this race, but I do think Awesome Gem and Giant Oak are vulnerable enough to not be worth betting at short odds. And in a race like this one, you'd better not leave out the European imports.

Race 6 (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf): Together is vulnerable in this one, so toss. I like Quiet Oasis, Kathmanblu, Winter Memories, Wyomia, and New Normal. You could even single Winter Memories and feel fairly good about it. The foodies among us will be cheering for Bobby Flay's horse More Than Real, but I don't know if the horse is good enough in this bunch. Crazy fillies.

Race 7 (BC Filly and Mare Sprint): I think Informed Decision is not the same gal as last year, but she is so good it's hard to overlook her. Still, I'm liking Secret Gypsy, Gabby's Golden Gal (Baffert-Garcia, watch out), Switch, and Rightly So. (There's also Evening Jewel and Dubai Majesty to throw in, too, if you have really deep pockets, which I do not.) I'm picking Switch as my favorite because even though she's been running in longer races, she's got some serious speed, Sadler has a good route-to-sprint win percentage, Sadler thought enough of her to put her up against Zenyatta, to whom she ran second. Plus he's had her out at Churchill Downs for awhile, working her over the surface.

Race 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies): well, I like AZ Warrior in this one. She woke up on dirt in the Frizette, and it's Baffert-Garcia hooking up again. Others: the undefeated Awesome Feather, Indian Gracey, and R Heat Lightning.

Race 9 (BC Filly & Mare Turf): Midday, Harmonious, and Plumania. Keertana might be a nice longshot, having raced 7 times over this same course and hitting the board 6 of those (winning three). I prefer Harmonious for silly reasons: she's a Wygod Cal-bred, and John Shirreffs is her trainer.

Race 10 (BC Ladies Classic): THE BIG RACE! If you're one of those persons who always bets lone front-running speed, then Malibu Prayer is the horse for you. My personal favorite is the Oaks winner, Blind Luck, although you can expect short odds on her. Havre de Grace is also a contender, and you can't really ever overlook a Shug-Phipps entry, Persistently. The other Todd Pletcher entry, Life at Ten, is worth considering as well.

Use these to cobble together tickets of your choosing.

If time permits tomorrow, I may also post actual tickets I do after any scratches are announced and if I have any changes to make to the above based on how the track is playing. (I did hear that it wasn't favoring speed earlier in the week.) Good luck!

UPDATE: Rightly So and Indian Gracey are scratches.

5 comments:

Matt said...

A little chilly here in KY, but it's Breeder's Cup Day 1, so really now, a little cold won't stop the party. Might as well go on record as you have Miss Joyce, but I haven't yet completely finished poking my nose in the stats. Of course, I only get MORE confused with less clarity, the more I study.

So, here goes, with what I think are my top 3 in each race as of now...

The Marathon - Love the long odds on Eldaafer. Have a food feeling about Bright Horizon, the Aiden O'Brien horse and at CD, you have to respect Prince Will I Am, but not much value there.

J. Fillies Turf
Winter Memories should come flying late, along with Kathmanblu. Quiet Oasis might be the "other Euro" who crashes the party.

F&M Sprint
Most difficult race of the day to handicap. Let's take Champagne d'Oro even at pp 14, and throw in the chalky Rightly So and lastly, Sara Louise, who is coming off a 3rd in the Gallant Bloom after a long rest.

Juvenile Fillies - May have to go with Tell a Kelly who has fallen out of favor with the locals after a poor final work. After that, we'll throw in the undefeated and Calder tested only, Awesome Feather, and then Baffert's AZ Warrior.

Ladies Classic - Always cautious about picking the 3 year old in this race, but I can find no fault with Blind Luck. She appears to be the class of the field. For sentimental value, let's add Acoma in her final career start, and also the bridesmaid at this distance, Unrivaled Belle.

See you at the winner's window!

Joyce said...

Hey Matt! Looks like we agree on a lot of 'em.

I'll tell ya, Tell a Kelly ... Sadler put Calvin Borel on this horse and that makes me nervous. LOL

I'm also feeling better about singling Blind Luck since Chelle pointed out to me that she almost won her last race, she just needed a hair more distance....oh, and she was carrying 10 more pounds than Havre de Grace.

I did read last night that Indian Gracey will be a scratch.

Good luck today!

Joyce said...

Well, here's a "fiddy cent" Pick 4 that I did.... you're right that the more you look at the races and listen to all the handicappers, practically every darn horse has a shot.

Of course, that's what makes it fun!

Ticket
Race #7 11/05/2010
CHURCHILL DOWNS
$0.5 Pick-4
# 3,7,9,13
WT # 2,3,4,8
WT # 1,6,7
WT # 10
$24.00

Joyce said...

Here's a cheap little Pick 6 I did. Let's see if I even get close.

Race #5 11/05/2010
CHURCHILL DOWNS
$2 Pick-6
# 4,11
WT # 7
WT # 9
WT # 8
WT # 6,7
WT # 1,10
$16.00

Joyce said...

With Rightly So scratched, I canceled the .50 Pick 4 above and used Dubai Majesty in her place:

Race #7 11/05/2010
CHURCHILL DOWNS
$0.5 Pick-4
# 3,7,9,12
WT # 2,3,4,8
WT # 1,6,7
WT # 10
$24.00