Saturday, June 5, 2010

Belmont Stakes Picks

Today's running of the Belmont Stakes is rather anticlimactic because neither the Derby nor Preakness winners are in the field. Once again we have a year in which there is no contender for the Triple Crown (last won by Affirmed in ... I think 1978, but don't quote me on that).

There will probably be two favored horses in the race: Ice Box, who ran second in the Kentucky Derby and, given the trip he got, actually ran the better race than the winner, who was Super Saver; and First Dude, who ran second in the Preakness, almost holding on to win but getting passed by Lookin At Lucky. I understand the strategy for First Dude is to break well, shoot to the front, and pull away without looking back--let everybody come catch him. At a mile and a half, I'm betting against him. He should get tired and get passed. I might throw him into the exotics in case he can hang on for a piece, but I don't like him to win.

So, who could win? Ice Box, yes. The other Zito entry, Fly Down, is also getting some attention based on a superb eye-popping win in the Dwyer Stakes a month ago. I'm also staying loyal to my sentimental Derby pick, Stately Victor. Word is he's training well and if he can handle the sandy track, he could post a surprise at decent odds, especially since another son of Ghostzapper recently won going two turns at Belmont. Then there are others who could get a piece if not win, considering the distance is a question for all of them: Make Music for Me; Game On Dude; and Uptowncharlybrown.

Everybody else I'm tossing out, so all my tickets will be a variety of bets based on these numbers: 3,4,5,6,9, and maybe 11 sprinkled on the bottom in some. Good luck today, y'all, and may all the horses come home safely.

RESULT: It was Drosselmeyer at 13-1! (With Zenyatta's jockey Mike Smith up.) It was 7-5-11-8. Weird racing day; several longshots came in. The Pick 4 paid $83K, and there's yet another Pick 6 carryover at Belmont for tomorrow. Wow.

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