Friday, May 14, 2010

Preakness Picks

I don't think Super Saver will get away with the dream trip he got in the Kentucky Derby, nor will he get the early breakneck pace. Lookin At Lucky should do much better without all the bumping and jostling he took in that race (in the one hole, an abysmal post). Plus it could very well be a positive jockey switch for Bob Baffert, putting Martin Garcia aboard. Garcia has been hitting with Baffert at an excellent 30+% clip down south in California. (And I just like Martin, period. Remember when he was a double bug boy at Golden Gate Fields.) Likely to be overlooked: Jackson Bend, a horse I also liked in the Derby, but who also had a bad trip and didn't take to the slop. Cross out that race, and he's a very consistent horse with a lot of heart and good Beyer speed figures. To round out the superfecta, I have to like Paddy O'Prado, who put in his best performance yet in the Kentucky Derby and should be able to at least hit the board.

I'm doing a simple $24 superfecta box. So, $1 box 6,7,8, and 10. We'll hope the favorite isn't the one who comes out on top. Actually, assuming Super Saver will be the favorite, you might just bet against him by doing 7/6,8/6,8/10. If you're doing exactas and trifectas, another horse to consider throwing in is Pleasant Prince and/or Dublin. Or do a dime superfecta and include a bunch of longshots in the third and fourth legs. If the odds are short on my top four choices, that's the tactic I'll be more likely to take. (UPDATE: can't do dime supers at Pimlico, so I'm likely to add a couple more horses to the bottom of the superfecta above.)

Check in tomorrow for additional picks such as Pick 4's and the like, or any last minute changes.

Good luck!

(Oh, the photo: that's last year's winner, Rachel Alexandra)

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