Thursday, April 29, 2010

Picks for the Kentucky Oaks


Damn. They're saying the track at Churchill Downs will be muddy tomorrow, and possibly Saturday, too, for the Derby. (Weather update: Looks now like it'll be warm and sunny, but Saturday, not so much.) Now my personal opinion is that a really good horse can handle slop or any kind of surface. So I'm reluctant to rule out any horse solely because they've never run on an off track. I am, however, reluctant to pick a horse who has performed only on synthetics. Sometimes they handle the switch to dirt (e.g., Zenyatta, Lookin At Lucky); sometimes they don't match their usual form at all.

At present, I've narrowed my Oaks picks down to five horses in the 14-horse field. In addition to these five, I also haven't ruled out John Sadler's Crisp, because I've been following that horse since her first race. That was a sight to behold. She ran so greenly that she veered almost into the grandstand before Raphael Bejarano could straighten her out, but once she did, she missed second place by a mere nose. She's won ever since except for once. My misgivings, though, are that she's not run on dirt, and who knows how she'll handle the muddy track...then again, she had a 6 furlong bullet at Churchill in the mud this week. So, knowing me, I'm likely to wind up using her on cover bets.

Having said that, here are the ones I like: Blind Luck (of course); Amen Hallelujah, Tidal Pool, It's Tea Time, and Age of Humor. I haven't figured out yet how I'll cobble together actual tickets, but I'll post those as soon as I have.

Tonight I'll at least post my Oaks bets and the Oaks, Woodford, and Derby Pick 3. So that means I'll be handicapping the Kentucky Derby as well for my friends who are going to be there (you know who you are!)

Let's win some money, y'all!

UPDATE: I'm going to wait to make Derby selections because, after studying the Form, I think it's a bit of a crapshoot. Lookin At Lucky has an abysmal post and so does Sidney's Candy (two horses I like). But one horse that may go overlooked is Jackson Bend, one of Nick Zito's. He barely squeezed into the race, but if you look at his pp's, that horse gets first or second every time he runs. You have to love a horse that has heart. Anyway, I want to see how the track is playing tomorrow and then tomorrow night I'll post Derby bets, Pick 4's, etc. In the meantime, regarding Oaks day, I have some more tickets posted, so click "home" to see them.

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