Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Kentucky Oaks Picks

Well, this year's field is cowering beneath the monster filly, Rachel Alexandra.

I think last year's Oaks had 12 entries (?), and this year's has been reduced to eight, because nobody wants to chase this girl.

If you're doing an Oaks-Derby double, I'd say single the 6 for the first leg. If you're doing a Pick 3 (Oaks-Woodford Turf-Derby), you can also probably feel pretty good about singling her.

Having said that, if I'm going to bet a superfecta and win (as I did last year), here's my bet and rationale:

6,8/6,8/5,2/5,2/5,2,7

This is an $8 bet. I don't like to make expensive bets like that because I'm cheap. But in a case like this one, I'm going to count on every jockey in that race trying to block Rachel while Garrett Gomez goes free on the outside. Thus 6,8.

The 5 horse has just won five races in a row and has Julien Leparoux aboard. Beyers aren't quite there, though. Likewise the 2. But D Wayne Lukas has three horses in this race and Bejarano, aboard, is canny.

The end of the super is a matter of throwing in who else might show up. I do think the 7 could do it because she's the only horse in the field who has been racing in better company (Graded 1's). But it's all on synthetic track and you just don't know how they'll do on dirt. The recorded work at Churchill was a bullet, but 5 furlongs in 1:00 is pretty typical for horses entered into a race like this.

Good luck!

1 comment:

Capn Dyke said...

Considerin' ye did so well last year in th'Self-Same race, Me Tiglet, Th' Cap'n would say it be Fine Reasonin'. Plunder backs whate'er fillies ye do. ;)