Saturday, October 25, 2008

Breeder's Cup Picks for Saturday

Two things to keep in mind throughout the day, assuming the courses will play the same way: (1) a friend who was at Santa Anita yesterday texted to say that early speed doesn't win on the Pro-Ride--in fact, Brad Free even points out in the DRF that more often than not, those who can sit right off the pace win more often than not. As for the turf course, as the track heats up over the course of the day, fewer closers win. So in the later turf races, avoid the straight closers. (2) The European horses seem to be handling the Pro-Ride track just fine on the whole, so all of those horses in the Classic are not necessarily big question marks.

So saying, here are my favorites and I hope I can at least hit a Pick 4.

Race One: BC Marathon: I like #4 Sixities Icon; #6 Zappa; and #3 Delightful Kiss.

Race Two: BC Turf Sprint: The horse who SHOULD win is #14 Mr. Nightlinger, but he's way on the outside on that downhill turf course, and I have visions of him hitting the dirt patch on the turn, freaking out, and running into the fence. Okay, I'm a doomsayer. So I wouldn't single him. I like #3 True to Tradition, #10 California Flag, and #2 Fleeting Spirit.

Race Three: BC Dirt Mile: #8 Well Armed; #7 Albertus Maximus; #1 Lewis Michael (or #9 Slew's Tiznow, who, I think I read somewhere, was pointed at this race)

Race Four: BC Turf Mile: #4 Goldikova! Of course! But watch out for Kiaran McLaughlin's only horse of the day in #1 Shakis. And #11 Whatsthescript is worth a look.

Race Five: BC Juvenile: #4 Square Eddie; #8 Street Hero; and #11 Midshipman. But #3 Terrain might surprise us if he doesn't run into traffic problems.

Race Six: BC Juvenile Turf: #11 Bittel Road; #12 Grand Adventure; and #10 Skipadate. #7 Coronet of a Baron is also intriguing.

Race Seven: BC Sprint: #2 Street Boss; #4 Midnight Lute; and #9 Fatal Bullet.

Race Eight: BC Turf: #3 Grand Couturier; #2 Red Rocks; and #4 Soldier of Fortune.

Race Nine: BC Classic: #9: Curlin, if he likes the track. He's been training there a month now, so ... But Shirreffs and Mike Smith seem to be on a roll, so I also like #3 Tiago. There's also #12 Champs Elysees and #4 Duke of Marmalade. And depending on how much money I have come Pick 6 time, I might throw in #2 Casino Drive. On paper, he looks weird, but he's been well prepped for this race, is fit, and has won on this track.

Good luck everybody!

2 comments:

Margo Moon said...

Alas, Curlin cannot run on grass, even the brown kind. Still love the boy, and am determined to see him work at Churchill, if we're lucky enough to get him on the grounds this meet.

How'd you fare?

Joyce said...

Eh, lots of upsets ... but I did win a Pick 3 and a superfecta. Race 3, 4, and 5 were won by: Albertus Maximus, Goldikova, and Midshipman, and the superfecta in Race 5 was: Midshipman, Square Eddie, Street Hero, and Terrain (which were the four I posted). Did you catch Goldikova's race? She finished brilliantly.

It's the year of the filly...in my mind, Zenyatta should get Horse of the Year since she's undefeated after 9 wins.

Poor Curlin. Chelle and I actually remarked that he really didn't look all that good in the paddock.