Thursday, October 23, 2008

Breeder's Cup Picks for Friday

It's that time! Here are my picks for tomorrow's card:

3rd Race: BC Filly & Mare Sprint: #5 Indian Blessing is, of course, a sentimental favorite. I singled her last year in the BC Juvenile Fillies and she won beautifully in the slop. But, the Pro-Ride surface is a different thing altogether and she's facing older foes this time around. Fortunately, she's learned to sit off the pace but not too far back in the pack, so she's well-situated to win. But I wouldn't single her unless I'm desperate to keep, say, a Pick 6 ticket affordable. I'd also include #12 Ventura, who will come flying late on Go-Go Gomez. And, if #6 Zaftig can handle the track, she has beaten Indian Blessing before (though going longer, at a mile) and could offer a decent price. If you're putting together a superfecta, other horses worth a look are #3 Intangaroo and #8 Tiz Elemental. #2 Indyanne, I am to understand, is a scratch.

4th Race: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf: #7 Consequence should offer some value and I wouldn't keep her off my ticket for two reasons; the Shug-Phipps team NEVER ships a horse that isn't ready and they always place their horses where they can win and secondly, she just fired a blistering .46 bullet over the track. She's the class of the field. But don't leave out #2 Laragh, who will probably be the favorite. She'll go to the front and bolt. But I wouldn't ignore #11, Saucey Evening. She's proven on this track and Motion is 30% with blinkers on. If you're doing exotics, other horses to consider for the bottom are #3 Maram (undefeated), and #6 Freedom Rings (Honk for Donk!)

5th Race: BC Juvenile Fillies: #10 Stardom Bound is a worthy favorite, possibly worth singling if you're trying to afford a Pick 6 ticket. Otherwise, #4 Sky Diva is looking good after the Frizette. In my mind, the best value in the race is #6 Van Lear Rose, proven on synthetic track (though Pro-Ride is a question mark) and she just ran second behind Laragh, the M/L favorite in race 4. The horse is also on the improve. Furthermore, Chantal Sutherland is a good jockey (screw the sexists who sneer at her) and it's hard to resist using the #6 at odds of 30-1. Other horses to consider are #9, Palacio de Amor, and #12 Dream Empress.

6th Race: BC Filly and Mare Turf: Arrgh! There are so many good horses in this race! But I love #7 Mauralakana--don't be fooled by her last race; she didn't like the yielding turf and the turf at Oak Tree right now is very fast and firm: her kinda track. But Aidan O'Brien is looking for a big score, and his best bet is the #8, Halfway to Heaven. She could very well run away with it. At the same time, you just can't leave out Todd Pletcher's #5 Wait a While. If you can afford to go deep, I also wouldn't leave out #3 Forever Together, who always hits the board. Jockey Julien Leparoux can't be ignored in a turf race, either. I'd use #10 Pure Clan at the bottom of exotics.

7th Race: BC Ladies Classic: If you want to single somebody, single #1, Zenyatta. She's a big girl with a huge stride and something would have to go majorly wrong for her to lose. Having said that, the one-hole has been playing dead as a doornail at Oak Tree. You can bet they'll try to pin her in. For that reason, it's hard to leave out #6 Ginger Punch, a classy gal who always gives her best; but if you do that, you can't leave out #3 Cocoa Beach, who has beaten Ginger Punch and is one of Godolphin Racing/Saeed bin Suroor's two entires. If it turns out that the track "wakes up" and starts playing to early speed, #2 Hystericalady is the front runner and came in second in this race last year.

8th Race: Las Palmas Handicap: If you're playing the Pick 6, single #1 Black Mamba. She's the one to beat and has lots of experience running on this course.

4 comments:

Margo Moon said...

Race #3: I'm taking Intangaroo. Largely, I'm putting her on top so my partner can sentimentally choose Indian Blessing, knowing that somebody in the family is backing Intangaroo.

Race #6: Zenyatta. Don't care that she's gonna pay NOTHING. This one's a vote, more than a bet.

I'll get back with you about the rest later. I hope.

Good luck to 'em alllllll!!!!!

Margo Moon said...

Um, make that Race #7. Zenyatta should prolly skip Race 6, to be fresher for Race 7. Heh.

Joyce said...

I agree Zenyatta should probably skip race 6, LOL! So hey! You can do a fairly cheap Pick 6 by singling Intangaroo in one leg, Zenyatta in another, and Black Mamba in the last. Say you pick just two in the other three legs, so it's: 1 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16, so times that by $2, and it's a $32 bet that could pay off by at least a few thousand. Even if you lose one leg, you'd still get the consolation 5, which will give you your money back at the very worst and a few hundred at the best.

But even I have problems doing a $32 ticket in this economy. ;-)

Joyce said...

OK, apparently I'm a dolt and can't do math. Here's the Pick 6 ticket I did (pretty chalky, I know, I know) and it cost only $24:

Leg 1: 5, 12
Leg 2: 2, 7
Leg 3: 10
Leg 4: 3, 7, 8
Leg 5: 1
Leg 6: 1

If Intangaroo wins the first leg, I'll smack myself upside the head. I'm also nervous that I decided to bet against Wait A While, but I can't afford to bet all of 'em. ;-)