Friday, May 2, 2008

Kentucky Derby Trifecta

Well, the more I look over the PPs, the more I have to admit the favorite, Big Brown, despite having to break from the 20-post-from-hell and despite the fact he's only been in three races, seems to be the far superior horse.

The only other horse I see who could possibly beat him is the 10, Colonel John, an improving closer who could tag Big Brown at the wire if the horse is tiring.

As I posted the other day, the rest of the field pretty much makes for a crapshoot. I'll probably do some gimmicky stuff on a lark since I now have a bit of a bankroll from my Oaks superfectta (I can never resist the Super High 5) but here's a dollar trifecta I feel pretty comfortable with. It's a $36 bet, though.

I'm going to do 20,10/20,10/all.

I do think there are some horses that are "toss-outs"--Cowboy Cal, Z Humor, Big Truck, Anak Nakal. I can't toss out the filly, Eight Belles, because if she gets a good break, she could at least get up for a piece.

Nasty slop at Churchill Downs today...but the track should be better tomorrow.

Good luck!

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