Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Adele Sings "Daydreamer"

Check her out! She's a British sensation (bye bye, Amy Winehouse) and amazing, especially for a 20 year-old. Like Alison Moyet, she's a big girl with a big voice and I have a big, big crush on her. :-)

Monday, May 5, 2008

Dog, Cat, and Rat

Well, we need something heart-warming posted here, I think. This one's cute--a homeless man in Santa Barbara makes his living by teaching us all a lesson in how to get along. The cat grooming the rat is definitely worth seeing.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

RIP, Eight Belles



What a big, beautiful filly with a big, beautiful heart. She's the only one of the bunch to really give Big Brown a race. Naturally I had bet her across the board--she was the filly! How could I not?!

That was money won that I couldn't bear to keep. My partner and I immediately donated it to GEVA (an equine rescue and rehab organization), who happened to have a table at the track yesterday. If you have a few dimes to spare, it'd be awfully nice if you could do the same. To do so, click here.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Wet Tracks Give Me the Willies

They say the Derby track is a mess at the moment. But the rain seems to be moving out of the area, so perhaps the track, sealed and groomed and sealed and groomed yadda blah, yadda blah, will be vastly improved by the 10th race.

But if not, an off track alters the picture a little. For one thing, Tale of Ekati doesn't appear to care for an off track. In the two times he ran in the wet, he didn't even hit the board.

However, Pyro LOVES a wet track. So do Visionnaire, Cool Coal Man, and Smooth Air. Oh, and Denis of Cork, too, though that 16-hole post is a bit out there.

If Big Brown is as good as he appears to be, a wet track oughtn't be a big deal, but it is a question mark for him. Same goes for Colonel John and, actually, for any of the synthetic runners untried in the wet.

I think a Pyro-Big Brown-Visionnaire exacta box could be worth playing. And here's a cheap $4 "wet track" superfecta (note it leaves out Cool Coal Man; if you have more $, put him in): 9,20/9,20/8/12,16.

Time to break out dem mint juleps! Good luck today, all y'all.

Friday, May 2, 2008

More Thoughts on the Derby...

Okay, I've just spent another hour going through the PP's and looking at about every angle I can think of, and Big Brown still is the horse who floats to the top. You might leave him off of some tickets just in case he trips or the huge crowd roar freaks him out when he breaks out of that 20 post, but that's flukey stuff no one can really anticipate. It is a horse race!

I like Colonel John but it's also true he'll probably be the second favorite, and though he's worked well on the dirt track at Churchill and had a great bullet work, it's true he's never actually run in a real race on dirt. So you could add in some other "seconds." One reliable horse is Court Vision, who has always hit the board, and has actually won on the track at Churchill Downs. Mott adds blinkers, and Garrett "Go-Go" Gomez is the jockey. Pyro is another possibility if you toss out the Blue Grass debacle, which could have very well been due to his not liking the synthetic track. Before that race, he had started to improve off his layoff, and Steve Asmussen is the trainer of the remarkable Curlin.

If she gets a good break and manages to get over to the rail to save ground (and, let's hope, box out Denis of Cork and Calvin Borel, Eight Belles could get up for third. As a filly, she also gets five-pound weight break. Her jockey's never ridden in the Derby, though, so he may make some miscalculations. Another possible longer shot is Visionaire. That's Barbaro's trainer and he's in same Derby slot, too--the 8. He's not the fastest horse, though, but I'll give him this: he's got a lot of heart. He's also always hits the board except in the Blue Grass, so maybe he didn't like the synthetic track, either. Despite that, he was making a move and gaining quickly on the leaders. Gayego is another good choice who has always hit the board and who has won on both dirt and polytrack. Mike Smith's aboard, and he rode Giacomo to victory in the Derby. I don't like the 19 gate spot, though. It's a disadvantage, but it's possible he could get up to third.

So, this gives us 20/9,10,4/5,8,19,9,10,4 as a much cheaper trifecta than the one suggested below. You can then throw in a few other horses to finish out a superfecta. Possibilities are Monba, Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati, Z Fortune, or Bob Black Jack (who will probably set the pace or at least be close up front but I think he'll tire...yet he could hang on for a piece).

If you're doing a Pick 3 or 4, for the Derby leg, I'll probably go with 20,10,9,4.

Again, good luck!

Kentucky Derby Trifecta

Well, the more I look over the PPs, the more I have to admit the favorite, Big Brown, despite having to break from the 20-post-from-hell and despite the fact he's only been in three races, seems to be the far superior horse.

The only other horse I see who could possibly beat him is the 10, Colonel John, an improving closer who could tag Big Brown at the wire if the horse is tiring.

As I posted the other day, the rest of the field pretty much makes for a crapshoot. I'll probably do some gimmicky stuff on a lark since I now have a bit of a bankroll from my Oaks superfectta (I can never resist the Super High 5) but here's a dollar trifecta I feel pretty comfortable with. It's a $36 bet, though.

I'm going to do 20,10/20,10/all.

I do think there are some horses that are "toss-outs"--Cowboy Cal, Z Humor, Big Truck, Anak Nakal. I can't toss out the filly, Eight Belles, because if she gets a good break, she could at least get up for a piece.

Nasty slop at Churchill Downs today...but the track should be better tomorrow.

Good luck!

Kentucky Oaks Superfecta!

So, based on my 'capping posted below, I did a $4 superfecta bet on the Kentucky Oaks:

7,8/7,8/11/10,1

What happened was this:

8/7/11/1

I HIT IT!! Yeehaw! It paid a tidy little sum of $697.90. Now let's hope I'm just as lucky tomorrow betting the Kentucky Derby.