Okay, so far of three races, the 2 horse has won twice, and the last jock (Bridgmohan) said the track's definitely drying out and should be fast for the Derby (which is the 10th race). He said it's firmer over by the rail, so this is reminding me of this past year's Breeder's Cup when the rail was fast like that. This bodes well for Curlin, who is in the two slot. Could also bode well for Street Sense if Borel can get him over to the rail, which Calvin "Bo-Rail" (truly that's his nickname) will definitely try to do.
But when it's a field of 20, a lot is gonna depend on luck...how the pace shakes out and who encounters what traffic problems.
Makes you really appreciate a horse like Afleet Alex in the Preakness a couple years ago when he clipped heels in the stretch, stumbled, almost landed on one knee, but recovered, steadied, and went on to win.