Thursday, May 17, 2007

Picks for the Preakness

Eh. I wouldn't call this the strongest field of horses. [Even ol' Hard Spun (pictured) is having quite the laugh about it.] I think three horses will vie for the early pace: Flying First Class (6), Hard Spun (7), and XChanger (2). Hard Spun did just have a good work, so I don't think he's pooped from the Kentucky Derby, and now he's sitting just outside the speed, so his jockey will probably let him set right off the pace rather than have him setting the pace.

Consequently, I think he could even win this time since it's a shorter race, and his morning line odds of 5-2 are certainly better than Street Sense's 7-5.

I do think the 6 and 2 will fade and the closers will run up to try and grab the win at the wire. The best closers are Street Sense, Curlin, and Circular Quay.

So there's the superfecta: Hard Spun, Street Sense, Curlin, and Circular Quay (7, 8, 4, 3), in any order if you want to be safe. Unfortunately, not much value here. So I might also bet D. Wayne Lukas's horse, Flying First Class. He just wired the Derby Trial and is the speed of the race; he might take off and not look back. Plus Lukas has won the Preakness twice with a longshot. The morning line on Flying First Class is 20-1, so he's tempting at a bet across the board as the "upset" factor.

Barbaro broke down in last year's Preakness; let's hope no similar event occurs at Pimlico this year.

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